Poll shows Moore at 39% and Crosby at 34% in Utah's 2nd District race
A prediction-market forecast gave Moore a 94.8% chance of winning in the Nov. 3 election.
Correction, Oct. 16, 2026: what we corrected ↓
Based on reporting by Cache Valley Daily. Read the original story →
Continuing story: Utah's congressional map
A poll found Republican U.S. Rep. Blake Moore favored by 39 percent of voters and Democratic challenger Peter Crosby by 34 percent in Utah's redrawn 2nd Congressional District, Cache Valley Daily reported. The poll by Lighthouse Research for the Hinckley Institute of Politics and the Utah Debate Commission surveyed 515 voters between Sept. 10 and Sept. 24 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.32 percent. [1]
Libertarian Daniel Cottam, Carlton Bowen of the Independent American Party and unaffiliated candidate Robert Moesinger each received slightly less than 5 percent, and about 11 percent of respondents were undecided, according to the report. The election is Nov. 3. [1]
The outlet also reported that Nijinn's TruthIndex, a forecast built from odds on the Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets, put Moore's chance of winning at 94.8 percent. Nijinn describes its figures as probabilities implied by traders' prices rather than polls or results. [1]
The two candidates met Oct. 13 in the only face-to-face debate of the race. Moore told reporters afterward he was confident in his standing and wanted another term to continue work he has begun. The next morning Crosby held a news conference at the Utah Capitol with Utah Democratic Party Chair Brian King, and both said Moore was out of touch with the needs of northern Utah residents. The Utah Democratic Party has said Crosby was within "striking distance." [1]
Correction, Oct. 16, 2026: An earlier version said Carlton Bowen is with the Independent Party. The state's amended candidate certification lists him as the Independent American Party candidate. An earlier version also said the poll ran from Aug. 31 to Sept. 24. The Utah Debate Commission's results say data collection ran Sept. 10 to Sept. 24, with 515 respondents.
Sources
This story was written by AI from the report by Cache Valley Daily, which has the full story. How we write stories.